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Signals and noise. Tackling forecast bias: Part 1.

The average level of MAPE for your forecast is 25%.

So what?

Is it good or bad? Difficult to say.

If it is bad, what should you do? Improve…obviously. But how?

 The problem with simple measures of forecast accuracy is that it is sometimes difficult to work out…


Why bother with forecasting? From error and ‘accuracy’ to adding value

As far as I know we are not legally required to forecast.

So why do we do it?

My sense is that forecasting practitioners rarely stop to ask themselves this question. This might be because they are so focussed on techniques and processes. In practice, unfortunately, often forecasting…


‘Good enough forecasts’: the limit of our ambition?

‘…of course it is not possible to have zero forecast errors’

‘Why not?’

So went a conversation with a potential client some years ago. As usual when somebody says something that, from your world view, is so obviously wrong that you have never thought of what you might…


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